Coastal Hazard and Risk Modeling - AdcircLite-NC

Timely forecasting is crucial in the days and hours before a hurricane hits. AdcircLite-NC offers a rapid evaluation of storm surge and wave forecasts to aid decision makers both before and after a hurricane makes landfall along the North Carolina coast.

In any storm situation, forecast information must be available as early as possible. In the case of coastal storm surge and wave forecasting, it is especially important that the numerical models accurately represent both the physical processes and the complexity of the coastal region. This constraint usually requires high spatial and temporal resolution, making forecast simulation resource- and time-intensive, potentially delaying delivery of the needed information.

An alternative to running physics-based models for prediction and forecasting is to use a statistical representation of the response of the physics models to a variety of parameters and conditions. These “surrogate” models are essentially elaborate regressions of the model parameters to the responses, enabling fast execution and early availability of hazard levels.

RENCI developed AdcircLite-NC to accelerate the process of computing storm surges for North Carolina. AdcircLite-NC implements a response surface method that is trained on a database of hurricanes and storm surge and wave responses computed for the North Carolina Floodplain Mapping Program using the ADCIRC storm surge model.

• University of Notre Dame

• Coastal Resilience Center