Counterfactual-Based Supports for Visual Causal Inference
Description
Data visualization is a critical and ubiquitous tool used to support data analysis tasks across a variety of domains. Visualizations are valued for their ability to “show the data” graphically, rather than using letters and numbers, in a way that enables users to assign meaning to what they see. This in turn helps users analyze complex data, discover new insights, make data-driven decisions, and communicate with other people about their findings. The correctness of these findings is therefore clearly contingent upon the correctness of the inferences that users make when viewing or interacting with a data visualization tool. However, recent studies have shown that people often interpret visualized patterns as indicators of causal relationships between variables in their data even when no causal relationships exist. The result is that visualizations can dramatically mislead users into drawing erroneous conclusions. This project develops a new approach to visualization, based on the concept of counterfactual reasoning, designed to help users draw more accurate and generalizable inferences when analyzing data using visualization tools. The project's results, including open-source software, are intended to be broadly applicable across domains. In addition, the project will be evaluated with data and users in the population health domain with the potential to contribute to improvements to human health.
RENCI's Role
David Borland is Co-PI.